Using Aug 2026 until a newer reading is checked.This is a completed-month reading, not the current unfinished month.
How monthly updates work
Monthly readings follow the source publication schedule. While a new reading is being checked, the last successful completed month stays visible with its original date. A developing estimate appears only after a successful current-month check.
Source: Shiller + FRED · Calculated 16/09/2026 · Published data may be revised.
20% drawdown · Latest close
Checking latest-close risk state…
The latest-close light will appear after the opening data check.
Monthly Score & S&P 500
S&P 500 drawdown · left axisMonthly model score · right axisCompleted Red months
Aug 2021–Aug 2026 · 5-year history
Deepest drawdown in completed Red months-16.3%Jul 2022 · within this chart period
Hover or tap a month to see its readings. Use ← → when the chart is focused.
Selected monthAug 2026
Monthly score61.8 · Amber
S&P 500 drawdown0.0%From peak: Aug 2026+3.1% vs previous monthly average
Completed source month
0% is the highest monthly-average price reached so far; −20% means 20% below that peak. Red shading marks completed model-Red months. Drawdowns are not added together or measured from the first Red warning.
Drawdown calculation & source
Drawdown = (monthly-average price ÷ highest monthly-average price up to that month − 1) × 100. The peak uses all available history, including months before this five-year window. Source: Shiller monthly averages, excluding dividends. Monthly averages can understate intramonth losses. The deepest-Red figure uses completed Red months shown here, not provisional estimates or future outcomes. Separate vertical scales; line crossings have no signal meaning. Dashed segments are partial-month estimates.
Monthly Ledger Expand to view recorded months
Calculated using the latest successfully checked source data. First-recorded dates are shown only for readings actually captured by the dashboard; earlier months are historical calculations. Calendar-completed source periods remain revisable; consecutive Reds may be one warning run.
Month
Score / cutoff
State & run
Price already below prior peak
First recorded
Apr 2026
72.0 / 70
RedContinuing Red
0.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Mar 2026
73.5 / 70
RedNew Red run
4.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Jun 2025
73.8 / 70
RedContinuing Red
0.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
May 2025
81.4 / 70
RedContinuing Red
3.8%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Apr 2025
78.7 / 70
RedContinuing Red
11.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Mar 2025
77.3 / 70
RedContinuing Red
5.9%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Feb 2025
73.6 / 70
RedNew Red run
0.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Aug 2024
71.4 / 70
RedContinuing Red
1.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Jul 2024
77.1 / 70
RedContinuing Red
0.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Jun 2024
74.2 / 70
RedNew Red run
0.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
May 2023
75.8 / 70
RedNew Red run
11.3%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Mar 2023
79.4 / 70
RedNew Red run
15.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Dec 2022
70.9 / 70
RedContinuing Red
16.3%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Nov 2022
75.4 / 70
RedNew Red run
16.2%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Aug 2022
74.1 / 70
RedContinuing Red
11.0%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Jul 2022
74.4 / 70
RedNew Red run
16.3%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
May 2022
76.4 / 70
RedContinuing Red
13.6%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Apr 2022
72.7 / 70
RedContinuing Red
6.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Mar 2022
75.7 / 70
RedContinuing Red
6.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Feb 2022
73.5 / 70
RedNew Red run
5.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
May 2020
81.7 / 70
RedContinuing Red
10.9%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Apr 2020
76.3 / 70
RedContinuing Red
15.7%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Mar 2020
77.3 / 70
RedNew Red run
19.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Jan 2019
73.1 / 70
RedNew Red run
10.1%Monthly-average price basis
Reconstructed history
Latest-close indicators
Daily conditions for the 20% model · separate from the completed monthly score.
Key signals
Higher score = more risk. Inputs are percentiles; composites are scores. Credit inputs count as one family.
Monthly Red requires a finished month, published inputs and a score of 70 or higher. The displayed month tells you which period the reading describes.
02
Watch the developing trend
A hollow marker shows a current-month estimate when fresh inputs are available. It can change before month-end. Daily Red counts do not confirm monthly Red.
03
Look for broader confirmation
Compare credit, market momentum, housing and labor. One high valuation reading alone does not establish timing. Red is a reason to review risk, not a guarantee of a drawdown.
