{ "version": "correction-v1-2026-09-03", "generatedAt": "2026-09-03T06:09:38.341915+00:00", "dataRefreshedAt": "2026-09-03 04:57:25.611804+00:00", "asOf": "2026-09-02", "currentScore": 53.52718512046435, "currentState": "Amber", "thresholds": { "watch": 50, "red": 65 }, "weights": { "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, "formula": "Available-weight-normalized arithmetic mean of the existing four pillar scores; no top-two blend or confirmation bonus.", "selection": { "development_start": "1951-01-31", "development_end": "1998-12-31", "gap": "1999", "evaluation_start": "2000-01-31", "candidate_weights": [ { "name": "balanced", "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, { "name": "market_led", "valuation": 0.1, "macro": 0.15, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.5 }, { "name": "fast_market", "valuation": 0.05, "macro": 0.1, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.6 } ], "candidate_red_thresholds": [ 55, 60, 65, 70 ], "rule": "Among candidates warning before at least 80% of development 10% breaches, choose the smallest fraction of Red development months; then highest recall; then candidate order. Watch is 15 points below selected Red.", "caution": "Earlier research inspected later historical events. This selection uses pre-2000 data only, but the overall research process is not an untouched prospective test." }, "candidates": [ { "name": "balanced", "order": 0, "red": 55, "caught": 11, "events": 11, "recall": 1.0, "redShare": 0.3819444444444444, "weights": { "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "balanced", "order": 0, "red": 60, "caught": 10, "events": 11, "recall": 0.9090909090909091, "redShare": 0.2552083333333333, "weights": { "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "balanced", "order": 0, "red": 65, "caught": 10, "events": 11, "recall": 0.9090909090909091, "redShare": 0.15104166666666666, "weights": { "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, "selected": true }, { "name": "balanced", "order": 0, "red": 70, "caught": 3, "events": 11, "recall": 0.2727272727272727, "redShare": 0.06076388888888889, "weights": { "valuation": 0.15, "macro": 0.2, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.4 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "market_led", "order": 1, "red": 55, "caught": 11, "events": 11, "recall": 1.0, "redShare": 0.3697916666666667, "weights": { "valuation": 0.1, "macro": 0.15, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.5 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "market_led", "order": 1, "red": 60, "caught": 10, "events": 11, "recall": 0.9090909090909091, "redShare": 0.2482638888888889, "weights": { "valuation": 0.1, "macro": 0.15, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.5 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "market_led", "order": 1, "red": 65, "caught": 10, "events": 11, "recall": 0.9090909090909091, "redShare": 0.1701388888888889, "weights": { "valuation": 0.1, "macro": 0.15, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.5 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "market_led", "order": 1, "red": 70, "caught": 3, "events": 11, "recall": 0.2727272727272727, "redShare": 0.07465277777777778, "weights": { "valuation": 0.1, "macro": 0.15, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.5 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "fast_market", "order": 2, "red": 55, "caught": 11, "events": 11, "recall": 1.0, "redShare": 0.359375, "weights": { "valuation": 0.05, "macro": 0.1, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.6 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "fast_market", "order": 2, "red": 60, "caught": 10, "events": 11, "recall": 0.9090909090909091, "redShare": 0.2465277777777778, "weights": { "valuation": 0.05, "macro": 0.1, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.6 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "fast_market", "order": 2, "red": 65, "caught": 9, "events": 11, "recall": 0.8181818181818182, "redShare": 0.1701388888888889, "weights": { "valuation": 0.05, "macro": 0.1, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.6 }, "selected": false }, { "name": "fast_market", "order": 2, "red": 70, "caught": 5, "events": 11, "recall": 0.45454545454545453, "redShare": 0.10416666666666667, "weights": { "valuation": 0.05, "macro": 0.1, "credit": 0.25, "market": 0.6 }, "selected": false } ], "currentBenchmark": { "state": "Amber", "months": 79, "positives12": 32, "rates": { "3": 0.12658227848101267, "6": 0.25316455696202533, "9": 0.31645569620253167, "12": 0.4050632911392405 } }, "bands": [ { "state": "Green", "months": 145, "positives12": 38, "rates": { "3": 0.04827586206896552, "6": 0.12413793103448276, "9": 0.19310344827586207, "12": 0.2620689655172414 } }, { "state": "Amber", "months": 79, "positives12": 32, "rates": { "3": 0.12658227848101267, "6": 0.25316455696202533, "9": 0.31645569620253167, "12": 0.4050632911392405 } }, { "state": "Red", "months": 49, "positives12": 35, "rates": { "3": 0.2653061224489796, "6": 0.5714285714285714, "9": 0.7142857142857143, "12": 0.7142857142857143 } } ], "full": { "start": "1951-01-31", "end": "2023-09-30", "count": 16, "caught": 13, "missed": 3, "watchCaught": 16, "sameBreachOnly": 2, "beforePeak": 3, "medianLeadMonths": 5.0, "redShare": 0.16265750286368844, "watchShare": 0.5246277205040092, "events": [ { "peak": "1953-01-31", "breach": "1953-09-30", "trough": "1953-09-30", "recovery": "1954-03-31", "drawdownPct": 11.115355233002289, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1953-04-30", "leadMonths": 5, "leadDays": 153, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 65.92096762748189, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1952-09-30" }, { "peak": "1956-07-31", "breach": "1957-02-28", "trough": "1957-12-31", "recovery": "1958-09-30", "drawdownPct": 17.322673226732277, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1956-02-29", "leadMonths": 12, "leadDays": 365, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 73.41305606389771, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1956-02-29" }, { "peak": "1959-07-31", "breach": "1960-10-31", "trough": "1960-10-31", "recovery": "1961-02-28", "drawdownPct": 10.060261131570147, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1960-02-29", "leadMonths": 8, "leadDays": 245, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 74.69263633485576, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1959-10-31" }, { "peak": "1961-12-31", "breach": "1962-05-31", "trough": "1962-06-30", "recovery": "1963-09-30", "drawdownPct": 22.456091441315852, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1962-04-30", "leadMonths": 1, "leadDays": 31, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 67.81270033669281, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1961-07-31" }, { "peak": "1966-01-31", "breach": "1966-08-31", "trough": "1966-10-31", "recovery": "1967-08-31", "drawdownPct": 17.348906986712386, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1966-05-31", "leadMonths": 3, "leadDays": 92, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 73.17638263993614, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1965-08-31" }, { "peak": "1968-12-31", "breach": "1969-07-31", "trough": "1970-06-30", "recovery": "1972-03-31", "drawdownPct": 29.023474178403752, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1969-01-31", "leadMonths": 6, "leadDays": 181, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 65.48469414853649, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1968-07-31" }, { "peak": "1973-01-31", "breach": "1973-06-30", "trough": "1974-12-31", "recovery": "1980-07-31", "drawdownPct": 43.35304054054055, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1973-04-30", "leadMonths": 2, "leadDays": 61, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 67.91353967476434, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1972-06-30" }, { "peak": "1980-11-30", "breach": "1981-09-30", "trough": "1982-07-31", "recovery": "1982-11-30", "drawdownPct": 19.380987472365497, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1981-02-28", "leadMonths": 7, "leadDays": 214, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 66.41694257448512, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1981-01-31" }, { "peak": "1987-08-31", "breach": "1987-10-31", "trough": "1987-12-31", "recovery": "1989-07-31", "drawdownPct": 26.836672738312075, "warned": false, "firstAlert": null, "leadMonths": null, "leadDays": null, "breachOnly": true, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": false, "priorMaximum": 58.48808751818076, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1986-10-31" }, { "peak": "1990-06-30", "breach": "1990-09-30", "trough": "1990-10-31", "recovery": "1991-02-28", "drawdownPct": 14.78120924553955, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1990-08-31", "leadMonths": 1, "leadDays": 30, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 67.17568374750047, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1989-11-30" }, { "peak": "1998-07-31", "breach": "1998-09-30", "trough": "1998-09-30", "recovery": "1998-12-31", "drawdownPct": 11.753618426740909, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "1998-08-31", "leadMonths": 1, "leadDays": 30, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 65.23335777433303, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1997-09-30" }, { "peak": "2000-08-31", "breach": "2000-12-31", "trough": "2003-02-28", "recovery": "2007-05-31", "drawdownPct": 43.65179809621262, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2000-03-31", "leadMonths": 9, "leadDays": 275, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 76.80595366665153, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "1999-12-31" }, { "peak": "2007-10-31", "breach": "2008-01-31", "trough": "2009-03-31", "recovery": "2013-03-31", "drawdownPct": 50.824857436057314, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2007-08-31", "leadMonths": 5, "leadDays": 153, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 71.1470308902305, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2007-03-31" }, { "peak": "2018-09-30", "breach": "2018-12-31", "trough": "2018-12-31", "recovery": "2019-04-30", "drawdownPct": 11.517835602274683, "warned": false, "firstAlert": null, "leadMonths": null, "leadDays": null, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": false, "priorMaximum": 62.15304879373043, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2018-04-30" }, { "peak": "2020-01-31", "breach": "2020-03-31", "trough": "2020-03-31", "recovery": "2020-08-31", "drawdownPct": 19.090009009529375, "warned": false, "firstAlert": null, "leadMonths": null, "leadDays": null, "breachOnly": true, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": false, "priorMaximum": 57.25392991754402, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2019-03-31" }, { "peak": "2021-12-31", "breach": "2022-05-31", "trough": "2022-10-31", "recovery": "2023-09-30", "drawdownPct": 20.29450050816183, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2022-03-31", "leadMonths": 2, "leadDays": 61, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 66.92488084161845, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2022-02-28" } ] }, "modern": { "start": "2000-01-31", "end": "2023-09-30", "count": 5, "caught": 3, "missed": 2, "watchCaught": 5, "sameBreachOnly": 1, "beforePeak": 2, "medianLeadMonths": 5.0, "redShare": 0.1824561403508772, "watchShare": 0.4807017543859649, "events": [ { "peak": "2000-08-31", "breach": "2000-12-31", "trough": "2003-02-28", "recovery": "2007-05-31", "drawdownPct": 43.65179809621262, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2000-03-31", "leadMonths": 9, "leadDays": 275, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 76.80595366665153, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2000-01-31" }, { "peak": "2007-10-31", "breach": "2008-01-31", "trough": "2009-03-31", "recovery": "2013-03-31", "drawdownPct": 50.824857436057314, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2007-08-31", "leadMonths": 5, "leadDays": 153, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 71.1470308902305, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2007-03-31" }, { "peak": "2018-09-30", "breach": "2018-12-31", "trough": "2018-12-31", "recovery": "2019-04-30", "drawdownPct": 11.517835602274683, "warned": false, "firstAlert": null, "leadMonths": null, "leadDays": null, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": false, "priorMaximum": 62.15304879373043, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2018-04-30" }, { "peak": "2020-01-31", "breach": "2020-03-31", "trough": "2020-03-31", "recovery": "2020-08-31", "drawdownPct": 19.090009009529375, "warned": false, "firstAlert": null, "leadMonths": null, "leadDays": null, "breachOnly": true, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": false, "priorMaximum": 57.25392991754402, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2019-03-31" }, { "peak": "2021-12-31", "breach": "2022-05-31", "trough": "2022-10-31", "recovery": "2023-09-30", "drawdownPct": 20.29450050816183, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2022-03-31", "leadMonths": 2, "leadDays": 61, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": false, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 66.92488084161845, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2022-02-28" } ] }, "daily": { "start": "2017-01-03", "end": "2026-09-02", "count": 5, "caught": 5, "missed": 0, "watchCaught": 5, "sameBreachOnly": 0, "beforePeak": 5, "medianLeadMonths": 10.0, "redShare": 0.2679012345679012, "watchShare": 0.6962962962962963, "events": [ { "peak": "2018-01-26", "breach": "2018-02-08", "trough": "2018-02-08", "recovery": "2018-08-24", "drawdownPct": 10.159526884265556, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2017-04-13", "leadMonths": 10, "leadDays": 301, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 72.39608780031594, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2017-02-08" }, { "peak": "2018-09-20", "breach": "2018-11-23", "trough": "2018-12-24", "recovery": "2019-04-23", "drawdownPct": 19.778213767806875, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2018-02-05", "leadMonths": 9, "leadDays": 291, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 75.43424089219363, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2017-11-30" }, { "peak": "2020-02-19", "breach": "2020-02-27", "trough": "2020-03-23", "recovery": "2020-08-18", "drawdownPct": 33.924959024260595, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2019-03-22", "leadMonths": 11, "leadDays": 342, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 76.8227595946112, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2019-02-27" }, { "peak": "2022-01-03", "breach": "2022-02-22", "trough": "2022-10-12", "recovery": "2024-01-19", "drawdownPct": 25.42509631902864, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2021-12-01", "leadMonths": 2, "leadDays": 83, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 67.75631544286097, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2021-02-23" }, { "peak": "2025-02-19", "breach": "2025-03-13", "trough": "2025-04-08", "recovery": "2025-06-27", "drawdownPct": 18.902207791150914, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2024-04-12", "leadMonths": 11, "leadDays": 335, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 81.28358829317708, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2024-03-13" } ] }, "baselineDaily": { "start": "2017-01-03", "end": "2026-09-02", "count": 5, "caught": 5, "missed": 0, "watchCaught": 5, "sameBreachOnly": 0, "beforePeak": 5, "medianLeadMonths": 11.0, "redShare": 0.5728395061728395, "watchShare": 0.9810699588477366, "events": [ { "peak": "2018-01-26", "breach": "2018-02-08", "trough": "2018-02-08", "recovery": "2018-08-24", "drawdownPct": 10.159526884265556, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2017-04-11", "leadMonths": 10, "leadDays": 303, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 84.67324199081625, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2017-02-08" }, { "peak": "2018-09-20", "breach": "2018-11-23", "trough": "2018-12-24", "recovery": "2019-04-23", "drawdownPct": 19.778213767806875, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2018-01-30", "leadMonths": 10, "leadDays": 297, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 87.18394322769521, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2017-11-24" }, { "peak": "2020-02-19", "breach": "2020-02-27", "trough": "2020-03-23", "recovery": "2020-08-18", "drawdownPct": 33.924959024260595, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2019-03-20", "leadMonths": 11, "leadDays": 344, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 88.77186555202884, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2019-02-27" }, { "peak": "2022-01-03", "breach": "2022-02-22", "trough": "2022-10-12", "recovery": "2024-01-19", "drawdownPct": 25.42509631902864, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2021-02-25", "leadMonths": 12, "leadDays": 362, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 80.17266201133646, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2021-02-22" }, { "peak": "2025-02-19", "breach": "2025-03-13", "trough": "2025-04-08", "recovery": "2025-06-27", "drawdownPct": 18.902207791150914, "warned": true, "firstAlert": "2024-03-13", "leadMonths": 12, "leadDays": 365, "breachOnly": false, "beforePeak": true, "independentWarning": true, "priorMaximum": 97.54353589275969, "watchWarned": true, "firstWatch": "2024-03-13" } ] }, "falseAlarms": { "redMonths": 49, "noForward10": 14, "buckets": [ { "name": "Independent advance warnings", "count": 3 }, { "name": "Repeated warnings", "count": 7 }, { "name": "Boundary windows", "count": 0 }, { "name": "During existing drawdown", "count": 36 }, { "name": "Unlinked warning months", "count": 3 } ], "unlinkedRegimes": [ { "first": "2015-09-30", "last": "2016-02-29", "months": 3 } ], "records": [ { "date": "2000-03-31", "category": "Independent advance warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-04-30", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-05-31", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-06-30", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-07-31", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-09-30", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-10-31", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-11-30", "category": "Repeated warnings", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2000-12-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-01-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-02-28", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-03-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-04-30", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-05-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-08-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-09-30", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-10-31", "category": "During existing drawdown", "forward10": true }, { "date": "2001-11-30", "category": "During existing 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"2023-08-31", "score": 46.98641893595817, "state": "Green" }, { "date": "2023-09-30", "score": 52.162229678141685, "state": "Amber" } ], "inputHashes": { "artifacts/century_score.parquet": "707a2d900bd6ac9be5930fe1aa310765eece8d82b0d482548e77188d85f26079", "artifacts/daily_score.parquet": "c4dab7cdb67bd55b76064400e842fc312a340d3c84a8b4a36fab9feee5677a0c", "artifacts/run_state.json": "f708dc1a99b2d2c387637d09d263820d2a6e5b5a85cfdf6837197244cbcc48ae", "config/model.json": "6c736aac11390c3d27360a806c95f5c679e4866ffbcd957253cf660bc7b62cca" }, "limitations": [ "Monthly history is based on monthly-average prices through Sep 2023, not a complete daily 70-year correction inventory.", "The monthly reference frequencies are not a calibrated probability for today's daily score: historical and daily pillar inputs differ.", "Daily diagnostics use actual observed FRED closing dates and the saved daily pillar scores. No daily probability calibration is claimed.", "An event runs until recovery of the prior peak. Corrections within an ongoing bear market are not counted separately.", "An advance warning precedes the first 10% breach within 12 months; it may occur after prices have started falling. Breach-date Red is not an advance warning.", "Revised data and approximate publication lags are not point-in-time vintages. Earlier research examined later historical events.", "Weights and Red threshold were selected using 1951\u20131998 only; 1999 is excluded from the later evaluation. The overall study is retrospective, not untouched." ] }